EFL 2026/27 season kick off: Championship predictions and best bets
The 2026/27 Sky Bet EFL season is here! <strong>every game from the Championship, League One and League Two is live on Sky Sports this weekend | Football betting expert Jones Knows picks out his top bets and angles with Sky Bet</strong>
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Wolves v Blackburn, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Wolves hold the tag of second favourites for the Championship title at 5/1 with Sky Bet - and rightly so - but I'm always wary of backing teams that have made losing football matches a habit, especially in the early stages of a season when playing a level down.
When assessing the last 10 teams that enter the Championship having taken 25 or points or less in the Premier League, their record across the first five games of the season is poor. Of those 50 games, the relegated team won just 15 - a strike rate of just 30 per cent.
The market has Wolves in at 1/2 here, meaning an implied probability of 66 per cent. That looks a shade too high for me, based on the unknowns still regarding this Wolves side. Also, those 50 games also produced a goals per game average of 2.1 which points towards this being a low-scoring fiddly opener for Wolves, who might be lacking some rhythm.
Tony Mowbray takes charge of Blackburn again and despite his health issues and below-par results at his last three clubs, his teams did only concede 1.1 expected goals per 90 minutes across that 85-game sample size. Under 2.5 goals at Evens with Sky Bet is the bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
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Bolton v Preston, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Preston had a very strong record away from home against the bottom half last season, losing just three of those 15 games but there was a big over-performance which averaged at 0.9 goals per game when you analyse the expected goals supremacy.
The departure of captain Ben Whiteman to Wrexham and the loss of important attacking contributions from Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison also give Paul Heckingbottom a problem. He saw his team lose four on the bounce in pre-season and a season of struggle could be on the cards.
Looking at previous seasons, newly-promoted teams in the Championship have a solid record of starting the season full of momentum and Bolton can land favourites backers a winner here at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Bristol City v Millwall, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
There is a temptation to look at Millwall's third-place finish last season and think: that was a bit of a freak, wasn't it?
I don't think it was.
Millwall were third because they were really good at accumulating points.
They won 24 of their 46 league matches, lost only 11 and conceded just 49 goals. Alex Neil has brought a greater degree of tactical flexibility without taking away the characteristics you associate with Millwall. His teams are organised, competitive and pragmatic but there is more individual quality within this squad than we've seen from many previous Millwall sides.
This summer represents a more substantial attempt to change direction for Bristol City which makes them a difficult team to rate, but with such upheaval this looks a good time for Millwall to go there and do Millwall things. Away win at 17/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
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Charlton v Derby, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
John Eustace is a manager that can be relied upon to get his team ready for the first game. Over the first five games of a season, he has a terrific points-per-game average of 1.6 where he's lost just three of 20 matches.
Eustace took a side that had been fighting near the bottom of the table and pushed it to eighth last season in typical no-nonsense fashion. His football is rarely extravagant, but it is consistently effective. Derby played with only 44.4 per cent possession last season but made a genuine play for the play-offs.
Patrick Agyemang's long-term injury could be a problem, but Carlton Morris and Sammie Szmodics carry huge quality in the final third which may prove the difference here. Morris to score in a Derby away win comes out at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Middlesbrough v Lincoln, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
Middlesbrough spent much of last season looking like a team heading for the Premier League without receiving the end reward, suffering the unusual fate of losing both a play-off semi-final and a final.
If you were judging teams on how well they actually played football rather than simply counting the goals that went in, there is a very strong argument that Middlesbrough were the best team in the Championship once Kim Hellberg took charge.
The underlying numbers were exceptional. Boro allowed fewer shots than anyone in the division and produced the Championship's best shot ratio. They collected 80 points from an expected 83.2 and created 109 big chances while conceding only 68. Few teams have a stronger statistical case for improvement.
Hellberg has had his first full pre-season to refine a side that increasingly carries his identity: aggressive, possession-heavy and designed to overwhelm opponents territorially.
Hayden Hackney has left but Hellberg has the credentials to plug that gap. They look a great bet to win promotion at 5/2 with Sky Bet and can start with a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
- Leicester in League One - but what next for the Foxes?
Norwich v West Brom, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
Norwich were heading towards a relegation battle when Philippe Clement arrived last November but by May they had become one of the division's strongest sides and were left wondering what might have happened with a competent opening third of the season.
Norwich averaged only 0.91 points per game across their opening 23 fixtures but 1.91 across the final 23.
There was a similar tale for the Baggies, in terms of manager bounce, as club legend James Morrison stepped in and restored order, losing only twice in his closing 12 games and earning the job permanently.
It's expected both of these teams will be pushing for a top-eight finish and could be hard to separate on the opening day. The draw at 11/4 with Sky Bet is a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
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Portsmouth v QPR, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
Rumarn Burrell is a player to watch and potentially make a profit out of this season. A breakout season could be on the cards.
Burrell's first full Championship campaign produced 10 goals in 30 appearances and there's a fairly obvious case for improvement from a striker who was still adapting to the level.
There is creativity behind him too. It's where QPR's strengths lie.
Ilias Chair, Koki Saito, Harvey Vale and Kwame Poku give Rangers different ways of supplying the front line, while Burrell already showed in his first season that chances don't have to arrive in huge quantities for him to score.
He is 66/1 to be Championship top goalscorer and 15/2 to open the scoring against Pompey.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Stoke v Swansea, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports
Swansea may have won the transfer window based on their business.
The ownership group has invested significantly in the squad and infrastructure, while a recruitment partnership with Jamestown Analytics represents a potentially important change in how Swansea identify talent. Linking up with Tony Bloom is never a bad thing.
Elijah Just, Joseph Opoku and Moussa Yeo add fresh attacking options while Ross Stewart offers proven goalscoring pedigree if his troublesome injury record can finally be overcome.
Eight consecutive bottom-half finishes since relegation from the Premier League for Stoke have made the club quite predictable and a tiresome watch for the locals. Swansea can start with a bang and win at 9/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Sheffield United v Birmingham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
If you were backing Birmingham blindly away from home last season, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
You'd have lost £12.51 to level stakes with a return of investment at -55 per cent.
Chris Davies' side averaged 1.91 points per game at home but only 0.87 on the road and the manager is under pressure to deliver results to save his job. I can't see why much will change though despite Davies revealing to my colleague Adam Bate that a change of style will make them more competitive this season.
Chris Wilder has clearly tried to make last season's defensive problems at Sheffield United a priority as the Blades have kept four clean sheets from five games across pre-season and the Carabao Cup. At 4/5 with Sky Bet, with the insurance of stakes returned if a draw, the Blades look a great play on the draw no bet market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Sheffield United draw no bet (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Watford v Southampton, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Amid all the end-of-season turbulence at Southampton, it's easy to forget that under Tonda Eckhart they took four more points than any other Championship team from January 2 and they ended the campaign unbeaten in their final 19 league games (W14 D5).
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Despite the four-point deduction, they have to be on any potential promotion shortlists.
Crucially, the summer has brought continuity rather than mass exodus. Goalkeeper Daniel Peretz and Cyle Larin have turned successful loans into permanent moves while Léo Scienza, arguably the most devastating wide player in the Championship, is staying for the ride. This should be a winning start, with them to win by two or more goals at 3/1 with Sky Bet worth a poke.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
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Burnley v West Ham, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
There is a slightly awkward question lurking behind all the talk of West Ham bouncing straight back to the Premier League.
Are they actually built to dominate the Championship?
On paper, the answer looks obvious. They have Jarrod Bowen, for starters.
West Ham are the shortest-priced team in the division for promotion. They are currently around 1/2 favourites to go straight back up with Sky Bet.
However, is the type of football that has made Nuno Espirito Santo successful going to be as effective against Championship opponents who are perfectly happy to let West Ham have the ball? That could be the defining tactical question of West Ham's prospects.
Meanwhile, Burnley, now under the charge of Nicky Hayen, are expected to be a possession-oriented side. Hayen has spoken about wanting attacking football, while his coaching background describes a possession-based approach.
This means West Ham might not have to solve that tactical problem immediately as this game should suit Nuno's style. They are 13/10 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
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Cardiff v Wrexham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Phil Parkinson demonstrated last season that his methods could survive the jump into the second tier, adapting the team's shape during the season after a difficult start.
Wrexham did, however, score just 69 goals from chances worth only 56.9 based on the data and collected 71 points from an expected total below 60. They were also outshot significantly across the season. It may prove tricky for Parkinson to build, based on the lack of transfer movement, with a heavy reliance on Kieffer Moore to lead the charge.
Youth will be to the fore for Cardiff in their bid to survive following promotion. Dylan Lawlor leads an exciting collection of academy graduates and Ruben Colwill is a serious talent - one that is capable of scoring in the Championship. He is 100/30 with Sky Bet to bag on Monday.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows' best bets...
2pts on Sheffield United draw no bet vs Birmingham (4/5 with Sky Bet)
1pt double on Sheffield United draw no bet vs Birmingham & under 2.5 goals in Wolves vs Blackburn (5/2 with Sky Bet)